Credit ratings
Bulgaria’s Credit Ratings
Bulgaria is rated investment grade by every major agency. In 2026 both S&P and Fitch moved their outlook to positive, citing the end of five years of political instability and the benefits of joining the euro.
Ratings in October 2026
| Agency | Long-term rating | Outlook | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global | BBB+ | Positive | 15 May 2026, outlook raised from stable |
| Fitch Ratings | BBB+ | Positive | 25 September 2026, outlook raised from stable |
| Moody’s | Baa1 | Stable | October 2020, upgraded from Baa2 |
| Scope Ratings | A− | Stable | July 2025, upgraded from BBB+ |
| Morningstar DBRS | BBB (high) | Stable | May 2025, first rating |
Source: FXEmpire: Bulgaria credit ratings from all agencies; S&P Global Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 15 May 2026; Fitch Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 25 September 20263,1,2
A positive outlook means the agency could raise the rating within the next one to two years.
Why the outlooks improved
- Political stability: the April 2026 election gave one party, Progressive Bulgaria, a majority (131 of 240 seats), the first single-party majority since 1997, after eight elections in five years.
- The euro: euro-area membership gives banks access to the European Central Bank and lowers financing costs.
- Growth: close to 3% a year since 2024, well above the euro area.
- Low debt: government debt of about 30% of GDP, one of the lowest in the EU.
- EU funds: up to €2.53 billion from the recovery plan if reforms are completed.
Source: S&P Global Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 15 May 2026; Fitch Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 25 September 20261,2
What the agencies watch
- A wider budget deficit, 3.5% of GDP in 2025, and the EU’s excessive deficit procedure.
- Fast wage growth and a current account deficit Fitch expects at 7.4% of GDP in 2026.
- Inflation, forecast by Fitch at 4.9% on average in 2026.
- Governance and corruption, where Bulgaria still ranks below EU peers.
Source: Fitch Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 25 September 20262
S&P forecasts
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Budget balance, % of GDP | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.2 | −3.0 | −2.8 |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 29.9 | 28.4 | 29.8 | 31.1 | 32.2 |
Source: S&P Global Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 15 May 20261
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Bulgaria’s credit ratings in October 2026?
In October 2026, S&P and Fitch rated Bulgaria BBB+ with a positive outlook, while Moody’s rated it Baa1 with a stable outlook. Scope rated Bulgaria A− with a stable outlook, and Morningstar DBRS rated it BBB (high) with a stable outlook.
Why did Bulgaria’s credit rating outlook improve in 2026?
S&P and Fitch cited greater political stability, euro-area membership and economic growth. The April 2026 election gave Progressive Bulgaria 131 of 240 seats, the first single-party majority since 1997. Growth had been close to 3% a year since 2024, and government debt was about 30% of GDP.
What does a positive outlook mean for Bulgaria’s credit rating?
A positive outlook means an agency could raise Bulgaria’s credit rating within the next one to two years. S&P raised its outlook from stable on 15 May 2026, and Fitch did so on 25 September 2026.
What risks are credit rating agencies watching in Bulgaria?
Credit rating agencies are watching Bulgaria’s budget deficit, which was 3.5% of GDP in 2025, and the EU’s excessive deficit procedure. Fitch expects a current account deficit of 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and average inflation of 4.9%; governance and corruption also remain concerns.
Sources
- S&P Global Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 15 May 2026
- Fitch Ratings: Bulgaria outlook revised to positive, 25 September 2026
- FXEmpire: Bulgaria credit ratings from all agencies
Figures checked 13 October 2026. Prepared by InvestBulgaria for general information. It is not investment, tax or legal advice; please confirm details with a qualified adviser before acting.
