Fitch Moves Bulgaria’s Outlook to Positive and Affirms BBB+

Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Bulgaria’s credit rating to positive from stable and affirmed the rating at BBB+ on 25 September 2026. A positive outlook means the rating could be raised if developments are favourable, but does not guarantee it.

According to BTA’s account of the assessment, Fitch linked the change to the April parliamentary elections and the formation of a single-party government with a parliamentary majority, the first in more than two decades. It said this could end a long period of unstable coalitions and make room for structural reforms.

Fitch kept its 2026 growth forecast at 2.8% and expects 2.9% in 2027. It raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 3.8% to 4.9% and expects a current account deficit of 7.4% of GDP this year. It puts government debt at 31.7% of GDP in 2026, low compared with other EU countries.

The agency pointed to unit labour costs, which rose by a cumulative 36.4% in the three years to 2025, and to fast growth in household lending as risks.

S&P Global Ratings raised its outlook on Bulgaria’s BBB+ rating to positive in May 2026. Moody’s rates Bulgaria Baa1 with a stable outlook.