Ministry of Finance: Fitch Optimistic about Bulgaria

Fitch confirmed its credit rating for Bulgaria and characterized the situation in the country as “stable”, announced the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance Thursday.

Fitch Ratings themselves report that Bulgaria's rating stays at F3 for short-term foreign currency, BBB- for long-term foreign currency, and BBB for long-term local currency.

The outlook for the long-term rating of Bulgaria nevertheless also stays "Negative."

Among the main causes Fitch sees for the stability in Bulgaria's rating is the stability in public finances, as well as the political stability of the country and the low level of sovereign debt.

It also praises the budget reserve accumulated by the previous (tripartite coalition) government, but criticizes boosted spending near the end of its term in the first half of 2009.

The upping of exports and the growth of their market share is pointed out as a signal of hope; the level of human development and the business climate are characterized as favorable.

On the downside, Fitch points out a 9.5% increase in unserviced credits, which is expected to rise still.

Fitch sees dangers in the outflow of capitals, a possible deterioration of public finances, as well as in in possible shocks from the outside, in particular from Greek banks operating in Bulgaria, which all might cause a downgrading of Bulgaria's credit rating.