Bulgaria's budget deficit expected to reach €5.2 billion, or 4% of GDP, by the end of October

Bulgaria's cash budget deficit under the consolidated fiscal programme is expected to reach €5.2 billion, or 4% of projected GDP, by the end of October, the Finance Ministry said on 2 November, according to BTA. That is 1.2 percentage points more than the deficit of €3.669 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, reported at the end of September.

The ministry attributed the increase mainly to a sharp rise in capital spending and transfers. Capital expenditure and transfers exceeded €1.1 billion in October alone. About €600 million went through EU funds accounts, including €500 million under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, and about €500 million through the national budget, including €400 million under the Defence Ministry's budget.

The ministry said the late adoption of the 2026 State Budget Act, the end of the construction season, payments for military equipment and the completion of recovery plan projects had concentrated much of the year's capital spending in the last quarter. By the end of September, only around 50% of planned capital expenditure had been carried out.

The September data show revenue, grants and donations of €33.9 billion, 68.3% of the annual plan and 10.9% more than a year earlier. Tax and social security revenue grew by 9.9%. Spending reached €37.567 billion, or 66.1% of the plan, up from €33.65 billion at the end of September 2025. Interest payments were €974.5 million, 92% of the annual plan and €289.8 million more than a year earlier.

The fiscal reserve stood at €8.478 billion at the end of September, including €6.565 billion in deposits at the Bulgarian National Bank and in banks. Central government debt was €37.416 billion, or 28.7% of GDP.

The 2026 State Budget Act allows for a cash deficit of 5.7% of GDP. The draft budget for 2027, presented on 6 November, aims to reduce the deficit to 3.5%.