Bulgaria's October power and gas price surge: what it means for business energy costs

What happened

The day-ahead price on the Bulgarian Independent Energy Exchange (IBEX) reached an average of €305.56 per megawatt hour (MWh), excluding VAT, for electricity delivered on Wednesday 28 October, BurgasMedia reported. That was 20.03% more than the previous day, when power had traded at €254.58/MWh. Peak hours averaged €308.69/MWh and off-peak hours €302.44/MWh, so the high price was not limited to the evening peak.

On the same day the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC) held an open meeting on public supplier Bulgargaz's request to raise the regulated natural gas price for November by 34%, from €44.09/MWh to €59.08/MWh, excluding access and transmission charges, excise duty and VAT, BTA reported. EWRC chair Plamen Mladenovski told BNT that household electricity and heating prices would not change from 1 January, but that gas could not avoid an increase, although the regulator would not allow the full rise requested.

The figures and the background

The current level stands out against recent years. According to Electricity Maps, the mean day-ahead price in Bulgaria was €104.4/MWh in 2024 and €106.4/MWh in 2025. The highest daily average in 2025 was €252.5/MWh on 15 January; the 2024 peak was €348.2/MWh on 12 December. The 28 October price was therefore about 2.9 times the 2025 annual mean and above every daily average recorded in 2025.

Bulgaria is not an outlier in its region. In the week of 19 to 25 October, IBEX averaged €255.49/MWh, up 8.3% on the previous week, according to the regional market review CTX SEE. Romania's OPCOM averaged €258.48/MWh, Hungary's HUPX €268.78/MWh, Serbia's SEEPEX €263.79/MWh, Croatia's CROPEX €237.03/MWh and Greece's HEnEx €229.42/MWh, after a 23% weekly rise. The German-Luxembourg price fell 26.4% to €134.35/MWh in the same week. CTX SEE attributed the south-eastern increase to lower wind and nuclear generation, which raised import needs across the region.

Gas is the second pressure point. Bulgargaz executive director Georgi Tatarski said that when the company filed its November request, gas at the Dutch TTF hub was trading at €81.60/MWh, and that TTF prices had risen by a further 20% since then, BTA reported. Mladenovski said that more than 60-70% of the Bulgarian gas price was directly linked to international quotations, that storage levels were at historic lows as winter approached, and that Europe faced prices 11 to 12 times those on US exchanges. He told BNT that TTF prices had probably risen three- or fourfold since the start of the year.

What it means for investors and companies

The main point for businesses is that the price shock is not shared evenly. Households are covered by regulated tariffs, which the regulator has said it will not change from 1 January; the current regulatory period ends on 1 July 2027. Non-household customers, whose costs follow the exchange price, carry most of the increase directly. That group includes not only companies but also hospitals, schools, public administrations and cultural institutions, Fakti noted.

The state compensation programme for non-household customers runs from 1 September 2026 to 30 June 2027 and covers up to 80% of the difference between the monthly average IBEX day-ahead price and a base value of €122.71/MWh, Fakti reported. The final percentage depends on available funds and the payment is to be made once, after the end of the programme. Interim advances apply only in months when the average exchange price exceeds €180/MWh. The weekly IBEX average of €255.49/MWh in late October was well above that level, but the structure still means companies pay the full bill first and recover part of it later. Dobri Mitrev, chairman of the Economic Chamber, warned in early October of a possible "liquidity hole" for enterprises if winter prices hovered near the €180 threshold.

For gas, the regulated Bulgargaz price applies to sales to end suppliers and district heating companies, and households and district heating companies buy most of their gas from the public supplier, BTA reported. Mladenovski called for a gradual adjustment and noted that higher prices lead to more unpaid bills and larger debts owed by district heating companies, a risk for the heating utilities and for Bulgargaz itself.

The regional picture cuts both ways. On wholesale electricity, Bulgarian producers do not appear to be at a disadvantage against competitors in Romania, Greece, Serbia or Hungary, whose wholesale prices moved in the same range. Against producers in Germany, however, the gap widened sharply in late October. CTX SEE noted that lower German prices offered limited relief to south-eastern buyers and that hedging contracts need to match the market where electricity is actually delivered, a point that matters for companies with supply contracts referenced to Western European prices.

What to watch next

Bulgargaz said it would submit a revised November proposal by the end of October, using additional withdrawals from the Chiren storage facility, and that the revised price would still be about €40/MWh below the Dutch exchange. The EWRC has scheduled a closed meeting on 2 November to set the final November gas price. On electricity, the regulator can review prices from 1 January for the rest of the regulatory period, and Mladenovski has said it will use the tools available to keep household prices unchanged. For companies, the key indicators are the monthly IBEX averages against the €180/MWh advance threshold, any change to the compensation payment schedule requested by employers, and whether wind and nuclear output recovers enough to narrow the gap with Western European prices this winter.